In short chance can be seen as often nothing more than a catch-all for things that the game does not otherwise simulate: “chance” in the game represents not “chance” in some sense in the real world, but instead marks the limits of the simulation: the presence of chance may thus be a sign-post in the game that says “Simulation Stops Here”.
Quotes about simulations
Cynics have sometimes described sim / tycoon games as “animated spreadsheets,” and there’s some truth to this.
But the basic rules of historical simulations still applied. Or, as we put it back then, “If you can’t predict the past, you can’t predict the future.”
Be rigorous in defining your hypothesis. A model/wargame will eat you alive if you are sloppy.
