Be rigorous in defining your hypothesis. A model/wargame will eat you alive if you are sloppy.
Quotes about simulations
There is a vast conceptual distance between a prediction and a simulation. A prediction will prove either right or wrong, but a simulation is neither, it is merely a fictional outcome which derives from a set of inputs that approximate, with a greater or lesser degree of realism, a targeted circumstance.
But simulation value is not a function of detail and data: a simulation system either succeeds or fails as a whole, which means the system interactions of the data are far more important than the data itself.
At the highest level, a simulation should also have the players considering similar quandaries to their historical counterparts when making decisions (trade-offs, timing, priorities, etc.), so that some understanding of the thought processes of the historical actors is gained.
– What’s the difference between a simulation and a war game?
– Broadly, simulations model; wargames entertain.